The USD fights back... will it sustain ?

from the monthly chart we can see clearly that this is a bearish engulfing pattern being formed at the resistance 1.5140 area this year. With a slew of good data from the US and investors seems to be upbeat on the road to recovery will we see the fed raising interest rates sooner in 2010 ? Technically the chart seems to suggest a reversal pattern or a deep correction for the pair at the moment. Lets see how things will unfold next year as we brace ourselves for a brand new start to the year 2010!

Outstation

been outstation since December 15th 2009. going online with the help of the 3G modem and my trusted notebook PC. Well, work is as usual with trades being placed according to plan. some pips :)

1.4500 reached

looking back on the post at 15th November 2009

looking back on the post at 15th November, bearish reversal signs were all around but it did not materialize immediately the effect, instead it took a few weeks to see the pair to move to the intended targeted area. as of now the move is only 50% completed.

Looking at this recent graph, and comparing to the previous one above, we see that after the double top reversal pattern being printed, price did not move immediately in the intended direction but instead tried to move even higher, but each time as it rallies, a massive sell off will occur thus printing a string of bearish patterns. what we can observe is that, there is exhaustion in these moves higher and there is not enough buyers in the market already to push the pair higher. which can be seen by the pair did not manage to stay above the double top resistance area. So from here we can see that getting a big picture of the overall scenario and also reading and interpreting the price action is crucial for catching the right moves in the market.

Bearish outlook for the EU this week

Bearish signal were flashing in the pair for the past few weeks ever since the pair printed the first bearish reversal signal (weekly chart) at the end of October 2009. The bearish reversal signal is now more or less confirmed with a break lower in the pair. with 1.4625 tested and tried to break lower, we now see a potential move lower in the pair. If the pair manages to break the 1.4625 level we might see 1.4447 being visited again.

fundamental wise, option traders are reported to be betting on the strength of the dollar amid speculation that the fed will raise borrowing costs next year after a slew of good economic data being printed out recently. This had helped the dollar to gain some strength across the board as traders sees risk of carry trades being unwind if the fed will act on raising interest rates soon.

9th Dcember 2009 - correction in EU

The pair had been correcting since reaching the high at 1.5140 region. uptrend trendline had been violated and support is seen at last month's low at 1.4700/1.4600 region.

7th December 2009

The EU seems now to have broken an important level of daily support trendline. The rising wedge in H4 chart recently had fulfilled its prophecy. Today we have Trichet and Bernanke on the news. both are expect to deliver speeches around 8-12AM EST. with the EU now at an important support, their speeches might move the market today. So, keep an alert on and trade carefully.

pheeew... been busy lately..

been very engrossed with developing my own indicators and EA lately based mostly on price action of course :) well NFP today might have some impact on the markets though the market seems to be extremely quite lately with the holidays ahead.