The Secret of Successful Trading

"Successful traders have a larger edge and better money management than unsuccessful traders. Unlike popular belief however, this study shows that the smaller edge of successful traders is not the cause of their failure. Traders' failures can be explained almost exclusively by their poor money management practices."

"The Secrets of Successful Trading", Fernando Diaz

Friday, May 1, 2009

Price Action analysis - failed Evening Star in H1



Notice the failed evening star pattern in H1? So everything was right, for a bearish turn we have the upper trendline, the 50% fibs, the double top formation and the bearish candle pattern. if you would judge based on H1, the decision to sell short would have been an unwise one. Looking into H4, we see the completion of the bull candle and also a higher high. This is the answer for the failure of the formation in H1. A higher high shows bull momentum is strong, while a closer look at the H4 canlde disclose that 75% of the session in H4 was actually very bullish. So instead of looking to sell short, a better alternative is to expect a minor retracement to join the bulls instead or stay sidelines.

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