29th May 2009

EU update 2:42PM

The pair did not break higher yesterday after bouncing off one of the support areas. Today we might see EU trading in a range until either it breaks out from the range of yesterday low or 1.4050.
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4050
Support: 1.3900, 1.3850

1st Scenario Of correction likely

26th May 2009

Technically the EU made a correction which targeted the support from December 2008. The pair bounced from that area. If bull's momentum do continue, we might see a retest on the recent high at 1.4050

EU the week ahead

the weekly chart shows a break above an important resistance level of 1.3740. this might suggest price to retest the 1.4350 level soon.

A nice article on trading psychology-Trading Alter Ego

i stumbled upon this article while going thru NickB's site at www.forex4noobs.com and i strongly believe what he wrote is really true, practical and useful do head over here :
My Trading Alter-Ego Made Me a Profitable Trader

21st May 2009

EU broke the upper resistance yesterday, from here we might see further upside as the pair had broken thru the major resistances.

The Sky's The Limit !

i came across a familiar phrase today while walking by some shops which sold posters. I often heard this phrase from my dad as an encouragement to me when i was a kid (even now as well) but i never did know that there is a quote following the famous phrase, well this is something i wanna share...

The Sky's The Limit !

“Everyone has potential .. It is an infinite resource that cannot
be exhausted, but can be lost in the clouds of fear and
complacency. It may take courage to embrace the possibilities
of your own potential, but once you’ve flown past the summit
of your fears, nothing will seem impossible.”

Trade Setups 20th May 2009

this is a short trade with aiming 50 pips to the next R

Trade Setups 19th May 2009

19th May 2009

Bearish reversals pattern

now that we see signs of bearish reversal patterns in the EU, this uptrend might halt here. Next support might be 1.3400

The Inward Journey

Have you every think of what matters most for success in the trading arena? be it FOREX, STOCKS, COMMODITIES, FUTURES, etc. Is that the method that they use? their money management style? or their psychology? if you were to interview them you might find that they all posses different trading methods, but one thing in common is that their trading method is of low risk setup. So, we can see that method does not really contribute to their success, i've seen people with very simple method having great success in the trading arena and also people with highly complex method succeed. So what is the main ingredient for success? If you were to look closely into the books written for trading, u might find that most of these books write extensively on deveoping a trading method, hardly you would come across books that really touch on the aspect of trading psychology. If there are so many books out there that teaches people in developing a trading method, then how come we still have alot of traders that arent successful? doesnt this proof anything to you that what matters most for success in trading is NOT the method but the psychological aspect of it? and in the markets, there are hardly any books that touches on these subject extensively.

The market itself is made up of individuals, and as individuals we posses emotions, prices moves because of the participant's emotions. Hence what really moves the market is nothing but our emotions of FEAR and GREED. When i started out trading the aspect of psychology was not taken seriously, what i emphasized most was on the trading method. I kept refining my trading method hoping to come out with something that is 100% perfect, no errors but if you would realise human beings are not 100% perfect in anyways, he have our flaws and hence the market is also not 100% perfect, so to come out with something that is totally 100% perfect is near impossible! I know many of us out there are trying to find the 'Holy Grail' of the trading method, honestly speaking the 'Holy Grail' does exists, but it is not the way we think it is. Actually the "Holy Grail' exists in ourselves internally NOT externally. in other words, the true 'Holy Grail' i might say is our own PSYCHOLOGY that is how do we master our emotions when we are in the markets. Many of us actually posses trading systems that can make millions in the long run, but ask yourself have ever really 100% follow it? i.e. entering and exiting based on the system's rules? i dare say alot of us are easily carried away by the market's emotions when we are in a trade i.e. taking profits too early, or cutting losses too late. Alot of times these process happens and we blame the system, we blame the markets, we blame the weather, we blame the food we just ate, we blame the location, the house, our children etc etc. and the lists can go on and on because as humans we tend to have the "Blame Mentality". When we have problems we tend to look externally for solutions because taking the responsibility of a fault would somewhat goes against our human ego.

So if you are still wondering why your trading hasn't pick up much steam yet, dont go over refining trading methods, blaming others or whatsoever, instead reflect deeply in oneself and start to search for the answer within, look internally afterall trading is an "inward journey"
Well, nuff said.. i myself is still not yet to really solve this psychological issues of trading, but atleast i realise now that what matters most for success is our psychology-"The Inward Journey"

13th May 2009

the daily candle had formed a bullish engulfing. If we do see a convincing break above 1.3740, then there would be a good chance for price to retest 1.3900.

Trade Setups 12th May 2009

this was a nice setup which sees the retest of the high.

Trade Setups 11th May 2009

Going long with the bearish engulfing in H4 is not a very good idea, not untill we see some sign of bulls in H1. This H1 graph showed a good trade setup with the bullish tweezer bottom pair.

Trade Setups 8th May 2009

Important SR levels as entry points

EU update

The NFP as expected came better than forecast, and this had significantly increase the risk appetite of investors at the moment. looking at the EU, it is now retesting the Upper trendline of the major downtrend. If we do get a break above this Trendline we might see further upside potential to retest the resistance area.

8th May 2009

on the daily chart, the pair had made a bullish close for yesterday, breaking the high of the doji candle. this might signify some further potential up move if we can break above yesterday high at 1.3470 a convincing break above this would target 1.3600 the next R. Current support at 1.3340 and Resistance at 1.3400/70

EU update

if the EU manage to close above the previous day doji candle then this pair might hv higher chance of rallying up further for the next few days.

Bank stress test Vs ECB/BOE rate decision

With all the important news releases today, the EU had been stucked in a range since yesterday. Previously for the past few months the interest rate decision was only the factor behind the move on the 1st week of the month but this month was abit different as we have the banks stress test result which would also be release later in the day, this would thus significantly impact the currencies market.

EU update : potential H&S

there is a potential H&S in H1 for EU today.

Trade Setups 5th May 2009

The previous day close was a bullish daily candle. the pullback on the R turned S area was also the 50% fib retracement of yesterday's rally.

Price Action analysis 4th May 2009

The ultimate support of EU seems to lie at the 1.3200 area. With the H4 painted a bearish picture yesterday, price still eventually bounce up from the 1.3200 area. This might give a hint that bulls are strong there.

EU the week ahead

Price Action analysis - failed Evening Star in H1

Notice the failed evening star pattern in H1? So everything was right, for a bearish turn we have the upper trendline, the 50% fibs, the double top formation and the bearish candle pattern. if you would judge based on H1, the decision to sell short would have been an unwise one. Looking into H4, we see the completion of the bull candle and also a higher high. This is the answer for the failure of the formation in H1. A higher high shows bull momentum is strong, while a closer look at the H4 canlde disclose that 75% of the session in H4 was actually very bullish. So instead of looking to sell short, a better alternative is to expect a minor retracement to join the bulls instead or stay sidelines.