Short entry 15:06

Well, this is a very obvious short entry with lower high and bearish engulfing pattern at resistance.

great trades today, had helped my account to achieve new highs :)

Short entry 12:53

The decision for this trade was made based on the fact the EU had created another low. So a retest of the low is possible. Entry was made using the fibs level and also at the area where S turned R it was a good trade on the whole :)

30th March 2009

The downtrend in EU seems to have found temporary support above the 1.3200 area. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3350 area with the MR2 at 1.3340, 23.6% fibs and also the previous channel floor TL. Further resistance ar 1.3400 area with the WP at 1.3411 and also the 50% fibs at 1.3424

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Short entry 28th March 2009

My decision to enter short was on the formation of the Doji at the confluence of resistance in the H1 chart. I zoomed into the M5 and saw lower highs, my entry was at one of the highs in M5. Too bad i did not held on for long. Must practice holding trades, seriously!

EU the week ahead

Seems that the Doji created in the daily candle had sent its message clear that the uptrend was in jeopardy. The Upper Trend line and the 38.2 fibs level from the high of 1.600 to low of 1.2330 still holds strong. The pair had traced out a bearish candle on Friday's trading giving a hint that the price might have selling pressure next week. The next key support level to note might be the 50% fibs retracement of the bull move at 1.3100 as well as the 61.8% around 1.3000. A clear bounce of those levels might see the pair to retest the Upper trendline again. A break would suggest that EU might head back to the low of 1.2500.

enjoy your weekend ! see ya guys next week!

EU update 19:40

The price really bounced from the channel ceiling today with all the resistance there at the area. The bulls finally gave in and EU dropped right from the channel ceiling to the floor.

27th March 2009

The price is still stucked in the down channel which created a potential bull flag. Price still creating lower highs. A confluence of resistance might be a good place to go for shorts provided the the PA confirms the resistance at the area.

Short entry 09:09

The entry was right at the 50% fibs level but i entered abit too early. The patience to wait for a DT formation did infact paid off if one were to wait for it. Potential pips was +18 for this trade.

EU update 13:53

It seems that the EU had traced out a potential Bull Flag pattern in the H4 chart. A clear breakout above the channel would mean further upside and vice versa.

26th March 2009

The spike yesterday due to news and home sales was crazy! Well, i dont trade news.

The daily candle traced out a bull candle, and the uptrend retracement was kind of shallow with 23.6 fibs and weekly pivot as support. However we are yet to witness a higher high being created. Today's focus will be the high of the price reached yesterday at 1.3650. the H1 chart seems to be tracing an inverted H&S pattern with the left shoulder at 1.3500. which conincides with today's 61.8 fibs at 1.3500 this will be a price area to observe as well. further support can be seen at the 1.3400 area which holds the WP at 1.3411.

Short entry 19:00

shorted at 38.2 fibs. The bounce from the 38.2 went to the DO. nice fibs reistance. net +16

25th March 2009

The LCD formation on the daily chart had been confirmed. Let's see what will the PA suggest today. A potential retracement to the uptrend might be in the making.

EU update 01:56

A sudden wave of selling pressure had force EU to remain below the MR3 in the US session. The daily chart now becomes rather interesting as we see the low of the doji is being retested. If US managed to close the daily candle below the low of the DOJI at 1.3485 to be exact, then we would see a LCD formation which will signify further selling pressure on the pair.

24th March 2009

The Doji formed yesterday again signifies possible consolidation/reversal to the uptrend. From here we will see resistance and support at the doji's leg of 1.3750 and 1.3500 area. Intermediate SR levels are highlighted in blue and red areas.

happy trading !

Scalp Entries 23rd March 2009

I'm not really accustomed to scalping and this is what i'm learning currently. Overally the entries was ok just that i need to practice more on the exits. As usual, i dont use indicators to make decisions, all these entries were done purely based on PA.

23rd March 2009

The 50% fibs from friday high and low might provide some support for the pair at the 1.3600 area. further support can be seen also at the MR3 at around 1.3588 as well. The bearish pattern created last friday might be hinting that the pair will face some resistance here at the Friday's high at around the 1.3730 area which is also the 38.2 fibs level from the high of 1.6000 to the low of 1.2330.

EU the week ahead

It seems that the broke of the resistance level of 1.3100 had proven to provide further upside potential as EU had managed to break through numerous resistances easily for the past week. The pair now stands at an important juncture which is the UTL from the downtrend last year. The UTL is seen to coincide with the 38.2 fibs as well providing a confluence of resistance at the 1.3800 area. A clear break in at this 1.3800 area would provide further upthrust for the pair.

Trading with the pros scalper

For the past few days i've been trying to incorporate fibs levels into my analysis. This is something new i learned from some of the scalping pros out there. Well, I'm still in the learning curve of using fibs and getting some minor bruises along the way but hey, no pain no gain right ;) but i do find that they are very useful when used together with horizontal SR levels for the added level of confidence.

The 1st graph is in 1M notice the higher high created from the downtrend? I suppose thats a hint that the pair would try to challenge that high by bounce from the fibs level.

More graphs on fibs levels coming soon. stay tuned!

19th March 2009

Phew... after been busy for the past few days, now things are back to normal and i'm on track with my daily routine again. The EU broke an important resistance level of 1.3100 yesterday after the announcements from the FED. The pair shot up towards 1.3500 about 400 pips from the news that about FED's plan for the economy. we might see EU testing 1.3600 and 1.3850 in this coming weeks if the pair manage to secure its gains this week.

17th March 2009

The EU is still in the uptrend channel and the swing low and swing high yesterday was seen clearly to be bounded by the uptrend channel. today's level to focus would be :

Resistance : DR1 & yest. high (1.3070), WR1 (1.3040), MR1(1.3008)

Support : 50% fibs 1.2950

happy trading !

The week ahead (March 3rd week)

The EU ended the week with a nice bullish candle which saw the price staying above 1.2900. The PA in the weekly chart seems to suggest that the pair might be in a bullish tone. We might expect the price to challenge the 1.3000 level early next week. Looking at the H1 chart (2nd chart) we see that EU had formed a steeper channel and the PA on Friday seems to traced out a bullish flag continuation pattern. If the flag resistance is taken out then we might see price retesting the 1.3000 level. If support is being broken then price might retrace to the 1.2730 area. Enjoy your weekend guys/gals. See you all next week !

happy trading!

Long entry 2330 (13th march 2009)

This was a bad trade initiated on friday during the late US session, usually its not wise to trade at this time as the market is rather thin and prices could be pushed to just about anywhere.Well, this is just another cheap lesson learned from FX. I risked only 0.6% on this trade.

So what made me took this trade in the 1st place ?

as you can see in the 1st chart the price is making a higher high. The price seems to have bounced off the round number support with the emerged of two bullish hammers. Just immediately after the hammer a bull candle appeared which initially hit the minor resistance of 1.2921 and the close above both of the hammers confirms a support and a valid bounce. So that was the signal to go long.

So what was overlooked ?

The bull candle which was the signal hit the minor resistance at 1.2921. which was not a very good sign. So an entry after the bullish candle was not as good as resistance is already too near. I was supposed to exit after a few failed attempt to push price higher but i did not so this was a mistake. In trading if you know that price is being rejected at the resistance after a few attempts, its therefore wise to exit the trade with as minimal losses as possible.

My stop was taken out eventually by the price spike (the 60 pips bar). So this is the reason why trading in US session on Friday is risky.

on average its -16 on this trade.

Short entry 11:45

This short entry was initiated with the right setup, A lower high from the yesterday's extreme and also a double top. I was in the short at the 1st signal where price generated lower low and lower high. The short did not when into profit but moved against me for about 10 pips. Feeling that the price might not reverse back but instead ready to move higher i closed my position out before the price manage to break the former high. The price did not create a high but rather a lower high. An entry was possible from the 2nd swing high which i did not take. But anyhow from here i learned that inorder to avoid closing a potentially good trade. wait patiently for price action to form. was out at -8

13th March 2009

On 11th March the EU came down to test one of the prominent support areas which i highlighted yesterday. A failure to break that area twice thus creating a double bottom had confirmed the support at the 1.2730 area. price eventually broke higher after the retest. At the point of writing. the EU is now hovering at the high of the Upper TL as indicated in the H1 Chart. i will look for these areas for today's trade.

Support : 1.2840/30 (confluence of 50% fib and WR1)
1.2770/60 (confluence of DS1 and MP)

Resistance : 1.2945 (yesterday high and Wr2)

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12th March 2009

The uptrend in EU was strong and fierce yesterday with EU breaking the Tuesday's high. The Drop in the Dollar Index had helped to push the pair higher. The pair can curently be seen now in a nice uptrend fashion in the H1 Chart. Support can be seen at the 1.2760/50 level and also the 1.2650/40 level. Resistance ahead is at the 1.2900 and 1.3000 level

happy trading !

Potential great long entry 14:53

This long entry was initiated at the right time but got out at the wrong time. the 5 mins chart was forming a higher low and there was the confluence of support by the Lower TL in the H1 chart and also the Weekly Pivot at 1.2641. I was long at 1.2653 a few seconds after the appearence of the bullish engulfing pattern in the 5 min chart. Looking back the long was around the low of the trendline which made it a rather good entry. But the market was ranging that time and was not moving in my direction as fast. sensing that the trade might not work out right i had taken the decision to close near break even and wait for better entry. The market continued to ranged but at the same creating higher lows which might signify an uptrend in progress. Well, the fear and confidence level kept out from taking trades. the market eventually broke higher and went 100+ pips. Well, in this lesson if you know that its slowly going where you might know, jz take the trade or trade with half the risk if you are not sure.

11th March 2009

The EU staged a rather strong uptrend rally towards the NY open. this was partly due to Bernanke's speech and also news from Citi Group. The rally was cut short at the 1.2800 area which is also an area of confluence of resistance. It can be seen that the EU is now in an uptrend channel creating nice LH and HH. the H1 chart might show a potential formation of the classic H&S pattern. lets see what the price do at these important levels:

Resistance area : 1.2800/1.2760
support area : 1.2600/1.2550

Short entry 17:01

The short entry was taken after taking into consideration the price had made a lower high in the H1 chart. zooming into the 5 min chart the lower high can also be observed. the trade did not immediately turned into the green but was realised after about 10 candles. maximum potential was about 20+ pips. i got out at around 14+